After a chilled 2024, here's some red hot predictions for gaming in 2025
AI-powered NPCs, Nintendo wanders into VR and more fascinating predictions from writers and experts.
There’s a world in which you could consider 2024 unremarkable for the gaming industry. Like most other years, there were mass redundancies, launch delays and stuff-ups — that's sadly become the norm. There were also breakout successes and major points of hype too. Each major player had their time in the sun. But coming off a exhilarating 2023, with more blockbuster title launches than any other year, 2024 seemed rather sedate by comparison.
We started the year with Xbox annoying its rusted-on fans by revealing that its 'exclusive games' going forward would be ported onto other consoles. The year finished on a similar note, with Microsoft declaring that almost every device is in fact an Xbox and can play its games. A bold claim that will likely be tested over the coming months.
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Nintendo was largely asleep at the wheel, in hibernation for the probable launch of the 'Switch 2' next year. Steam finally launched the Steam Deck in Australia, quashing the unfair grey market that saw retailers charge upwards of 40% more for the same device. I never would have predicted this would happen this time last year.
Sony also launched hardware this year, carving out a new 'premium' market for console gaming. Early figures indicate it's selling well, despite concerns that it's a tone-deaf move during a global cost-of-living crisis.
There were fewer blockbusters this year than in 2023. But of the games that did come out, many pushed the medium forward — especially for role-playing games. Astro Bot perhaps presented the biggest upset, challenging Nintendo's long-held dominance in the platformer arena.
Global games journalism also continued to shrink. In Australia, we lost Kotaku Australia, a staple for local games coverage. It's arguable that the void is being filled by content creators, many of whom are writing or broadcasting as a hobby. But there's always a need for people to put in the work and ask hard questions — even with video games. Regardless of your view on the press and the role of creators, the fact that many who did this for a living have now lost their livelihood is something to note.
So that was 2024, but what about the year ahead? To answer that, I polled a raft of experts and writers for their thoughts on 2025. I started off with my own hot take, but there are plenty of interesting views below. Take a look.
I'd love to hear your view on the year ahead too. If you have a burning prediction, add it to the comments.
Nintendo wanders into VR — Dr Marcus Carter, Professor of Human-Computer Interaction at The University of Sydney.
In 2025, I predict Nintendo will announce the successor to the 1995 virtual display Virtual Boy: a fully-fledged VR headset that pairs with the Nintendo Switch 2. This has the potential to finally take VR mainstream. Nintendo has a well-earned reputation of delivering innovative and experimental game concepts, but more crucially casual and accessible ones that are suitable for children and family play. In contrast to the hyper-realistic, wholly immersive onslaughts of audio-visual spectacle we see in many VR titles today, its this accessibility that Nintendo is known for which is going to make VR an everyday consumer device like the console or tablet.
Ubisoft's troubles aren't going away — Fergus Halliday, author of the Multiplier Substack
Despite the industry’s ongoing challenges, there’s a lot to look forward to when it comes to gaming in 2025. That said, there is one big lingering question mark hanging over the future of Ubisoft.
Following a litany of failed attempts to pivot to live service and produce its own Apex Legends or Fortnite, underperforming releases like Star Wars: Outlaws and widespread disillusionment with the publisher’s open world formula from critics and consumers, there’s a real sense that there’s blood in the water and a major shake-up might loom on the horizon. For a long time, it’s felt like Ubisoft has been too big to fail. As we head into the new year, the publisher’s house of cards is looking awfully rickety.
I’m not entirely sure what’s going to happen with Ubisoft, but if the upcoming release of Assassin’s Creed Shadows doesn’t deliver in a big way it feels like all bets are off.
Game publishers will hold on to launch dates as long as possible — Harrison Polites
More than a dozen new games were announced during The 2024 Game Awards last week, yet only a few of them had release dates. Several announced they were launching within a week of their reveal! Anticipation and hype define the gaming industry. Yet its somehow worked out that you don’t need to chain yourself to a launch date in order to generate the same mass psychology around a product. In fact, early launch dates can create issues if you need to delay the game due to stray bugs and glitches… or if a bigger title is launching around the same time.
With everyone keeping their dates close to their chest, I think we’re going to see more weird decisions around game launch windows in 2025. Much like what happened with the new Assassin’s Creed game this year, which was strangely bumped to 2025 with little warning. We’re also going to see more games not get their due simply as a result of bad timing, mainly from not being able to time their launch to when other titles are coming out. But, look at the upside. With games not announcing a launch date until they are ready, we’re likely to see less situations like what happened with CyberPunk 2077 back in 2020. It launched full of bugs and glitches and tanked its owner’s share price as a result.
More ports for handheld consoles — Alex Stasenko, author of the GameDev Relay Substack
In 2025, I think that some companies will start porting their games for handheld consoles, considering the success of some adaptations. And mobile games will start moving in the direction of handheld devices, both current and upcoming from Sony and Xbox. Otherwise, I have a feeling that the industry will still be in a bit of disarray. But it will stabilise a little bit in the second half of the year. A lot of the companies will struggle with launching their games while the gamers' demand and expectations will continue to rise with the releases that do make it.
We will see more gaming intellectual property in TV and music — Kayla Medica, author of the Mehdeeka Substack
Over the past few years we’ve seen marketing teams (and IP owners wanting to make more money) adapt more and more original gaming IP into other formats. Just this year alone, we’ve had television seasons of Fallout, Arcane, and Halo, and films from Sonic the Hedgehog and Borderlands. While this isn’t new, the velocity of gaming adaptations will keep gaining steam – it’s a way to reach new audiences who don’t game but would enjoy the storylines, enhance loyalty in existing fanbases, and cash in on all the tie-ins we typically see from film and TV like product placement. Funnily enough, product placement is a two way street, making its way into the recently released trailer for the upcoming Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet PS5 game.
For the record, my favourite game adaptation is K/DA, a pop band created from characters in League of Legends. I’m predicting (aka crossing my fingers for) a new release from them in 2025.
The emergence of AI-powered non-playable characters — Joe Gibbs, lead developer of Australian indie game Fall of an Empire
November 30 is the second anniversary of ChatGPT and 2025 will be the year that we start to see hit games that use generative AI in real time to power NPCs, level generation and probably a ton of other things I haven’t even considered. Developers must choose between expensive cloud models and GPU-intensive local models, but with local models becoming faster and more efficient, serious, non-gimmicky games that use GenAI are on the horizon. I did a little demo of something like this at the end of last year, and I think that progress over this year has meant that it will very soon be a viable option.
2025 will be a watershed year for user-generated content — InGame Scientist, author of the Just One More Turn Substack
Indie games and user generated content (UGC) will take up more of the centre stage in 2025. Maybe an indie game will win Game of The Year, and there will be a UGC award at Game Shows next year? But I think it's clear that the bigger studios are struggling to understand the market and balance that with investor pressures, based on the number of games and studios that have unfortunately shut down.
Sustainable gaming journalism is now impossible in Australia — Jackson Ryan, freelance Science and Gaming journalist.
Predictions articles are a waste of time because very few people are good at predicting anything of note. I am not qualified to make predictions about games, trends or anything like that, but having worked as a freelancer for basically a year now, I can say one thing:
Games journalism with a capital J becomes practically impossible to do in Australia. Those that remain doing it are doing it for free, for terrible pay or writing it on the side for their major outlet. We -- media -- further cement the pipeline of press release to story, hot takes and opinion based writing to keep up with the rage bait or engagement farming that dominates other platforms. Deeply reported features, thinking about the culture and business of games essentially dies Down Under, while institutional knowledge is further eroded and what remains is extended PR, SEO hacking and unpaid criticism. I make no predictions about whether this is good or bad, that's for readers to decide. But it's happening.
Again, let me know what you think! Let me know your hot prediction for 2025 in the comments.
What I’m playing: The Outer Worlds
News of a new Witcher game and a brand-new sci-fi series by Naughty Dog — the creators of The Last of Us — may have soaked up the headlines. But for me, the biggest shock was the launch of a sequel to The Outer Worlds — the spiritual successor to Fallout: New Vegas. I replayed the game earlier this year, and now seems a better time than any to cover off on it.
The Outer Worlds' premise is fairly unique: You play as a passenger awakened from cryosleep on a lost colony ship in the Halcyon system. This ship, carrying humanity's most promising individuals, was lost in space and only arrived in Halcyon decades after it was settled. When you're revived, you discover a corporate-controlled star system teetering on the brink of collapse.
Your rescuer is Phineas Vernon Welles, an eccentric scientist reminiscent of Dr Emmett Brown from Back to the Future. He believes that awakening the ship's original passengers might be the key to saving the colony from its current dire state. This sets up a narrative that slowly evolves beyond simple good versus evil dynamics, offering players a complex and nuanced exploration of this dystopian, capitalism-at-all-costs future.
What sets The Outer Worlds apart is its approach to storytelling. The script is sharp and its characters are memorable. You genuinely shape the narrative too, making decisions that influence it’s direction and ultimately its outcome. It's just a shame that there are only a handful of endings for what is a complex web of decisions. But hey, it's the only game I know that allows you to finish it by accidentally flying your ship into the sun.
The game isn't without significant flaws. The combat system is its weakest element, characterised by repetitive encounters and bullet-sponge enemies — this is likely why a new revamped version of it was such a focus in the sequel's trailer. Fortunately, the game occasionally allows alternative approaches, such as stealth or dialogue-based solutions, which somewhat mitigate these combat shortcomings.
I always thought The Outer Worlds lived in the shadow of Fallout: New Vegas, another Obsidian title renowned for its complex narrative and player choice. I was genuinely surprised by the news of a second game. However, it was more successful than I thought. It was a best-seller in October 2019 and even received a Game of the Year nomination at the Game Awards.
All of this is to say that the sequel, apparently launching next year, will be one to watch. I'm ready for my return ticket to Halcyon.
Worth trying if you like: Fallout: New Vegas, Baldur’s Gate 3, Elder Scrolls: Skyrim.
Available on: PlayStation 4, Windows, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch (likely not a great port), PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S
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You can tell we're getting to the end of the year. There's a few typos in today's newsletter as I rushed to get it out amid a lot of other things going on.
They are fixed in the online version but not the newsletter. So apologies for that!