History doesn’t say much as to when Nintendo will launch its new console
And why that's not great for my wallet.
I have $350 riding on the announcement of Nintendo’s next gaming console. Before you ask, I’m not much of a gambler. That’s in fact a quote I got for repairing an OLED Switch screen — the parts alone are the bulk of it.
There’s a glaring scratch right through the centre of mine. I’m not sure how it got there, I’m typically pretty careful. But it is what it is. And boy, does it piss me off.
So upon hearing the news that Nintendo’s next money-spinner could launch as late as early 2025, I’ve been off doing some mental calculus. Is it worth repairing it? Can I live another year with a damaged screen? It’s almost the same cost as outright replacing it!
The wrinkle here is that a distinct lack of first party titles (mainline Mario, Zelda games) being released this year suggests that an announcement on the new console will happen sooner rather than later.
But then that got me asking: How has Nintendo historically done console launches? What’s the window between announcement and launch?
Turns out, there’s no reason or rhyme to Nintendo’s launch strategies. Here they are, listed in order of the relative success of the unit.
Nintendo Switch — Nintendo’s best selling console as of this month. Five months between announcement (October 20, 2016) and launch (3 March 2017).
Nintendo DS — Historically Nintendo’s best selling console, till this month. Eleven months between announcement (January 20, 2004) and launch (21 November 2004).
Nintendo 3DS — Yeah, the 3D made me cross-eyed too. One year between announcement (March 23, 2010) and launch (March 27, 2011).
Nintendo Wii — Surprised this wasn’t higher. A hit overseas, not as much of a big deal as the portables in Japan. One month between announcement (September 14, 2006) and launch (19 November 2006).
Nintendo Gamecube — I have fond memories of this gaming brick. Just under thirteen months between announcement (August 25, 2000) and launch (14 September 2001).
Nintendo Wii U — I enjoyed mine, the world disagreed. Over a year and a half between announcement (April 25, 2011) and launch (November 18, 2012)
So what does this all mean?
On average, Nintendo has typically given it a year between announcement and launch of their consoles, with the Switch and the Wii breaking the pattern and launching less than 12 months after being announced.
There’s so many factors that determine a console launch, including market demand, access to material to mass produce it and available software for launch.
Last thing you want is to repeat a PS5: launch with a lack of units, triggering lotteries, theft, extortion on Amazon and all sorts of other nonsense.
A longer release window — gap between announcement and console launch — also gives more opportunities for third-party publishers to market their games for the new console. As it stands, anything being developed for the next Nintendo unit remains under lock and key until the company gives the green light.
If there’s one conclusion we can draw: As time marches on, we’re looking at a shorter announcement to release window.
There are some known quantities. Investors are expecting Nintendo’s next big thing at some stage within the next 12 months and may punish their shares otherwise. Particularly with a lack of first-party titles on the horizon to drive awareness and buoy further sales of the original Switch console.
Also for third-party publishers, the aging hardware in the Switch is really starting to show.
This makes sense, as any announcement also cuts short what have been surging sales for the Switch, which only this month overtook the Nintendo DS. Maybe they will make an extra $350 out of me after all.